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Quantum Computing

Google says commercial quantum computing applications arriving within five years – Yahoo Finance

February 5th, 2025

By Max A. Cherney

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Google (GOOG) aims to release commercial quantum computing applications within five years, Google’s head of quantum told Reuters on Wednesday, in a challenge to Nvidia’s predictions of a 20-year wait.

“We’re optimistic that within five years we’ll see real-world applications that are possible only on quantum computers,” founder and lead of Google Quantum AI Hartmut Neven said in a statement.

Real-world applications Google has discussed are related to materials science – applications such as building superior batteries for electric cars – creating new drugs and potentially new energy alternatives.

Google’s prediction arrives amid wider uncertainty about when such a breakthrough will occur. Predictions from investors and experts range from several years to at least two decades.

For decades, scientists have been discussing quantum computing, which promises to deliver machines that are thousands of times more powerful than traditional computers. Traditional computers process information one number at a time, whereas quantum computers use “qubits” that can represent several numbers at once.

Governments and businesses have kept a close eye on quantum computing’s potential to disrupt modern cybersecurity and other fields such as finance and healthcare.

Quantum computing resembles artificial intelligence in some ways. AI before ChatGPT’s launch in 2022 was understood mostly by scientists. Scientists had been quietly producing breakthroughs to accelerate the field but there was no firm understanding of when AI would be commercially useful.

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has said that quantum computing is much farther away than five years. At an analyst event at the CES trade show in Las Vegas in January, Huang predicted practical uses for quantum computers are about 20 years away.

“If you kind of said 15 years… that’d probably be on the early side,” Huang said, “If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”

Huang’s comments ripped about $8 billion in market value from a handful of quantum computing stocks. The sector was given a boost in December when Google announced it had cracked a key challenge in the field with its new chips.

Google has been working on its quantum computing program since 2012 and has designed and built several quantum chips. By using quantum processors, Google said it had managed to solve a computing problem in minutes that would take a classical computer more time than the history of the universe.

Google’s quantum computing scientists announced another step on the path to real world applications within five years on Wednesday.

In a paper published in the scientific journal Nature, the scientists said they had discovered a new approach to quantum simulation, which is a step on the path to achieving Google’s objective.

(Reporting by Max A. Cherney in San Francisco. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

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Quantum Computing

Bill Gates Sees Quantum Computing’s Potential Arrival in Three to Five Years – The Quantum Insider

February 4th, 2025

Insider Brief

  • Bill Gates believes practical quantum computing could arrive in the next three to five years, challenging longer timelines suggested by others.
  • Microsoft is working on a powerful quantum machine, set to be released later in 2025, with Gates expressing confidence in its progress.
  • Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has suggested that quantum computing may take 15 to 30 years to become widely useful, sparking debate in the tech community.

Bill Gates, co-founder and former CEO of Microsoft, believes that quantum computing, a technology that could revolutionize industries from medicine to materials science, may be closer than some experts think. In a recent interview on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast, Gates suggested that useful quantum computers could arrive in as little as three to five years.

“There is the possibility that he [Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang] could be wrong. There is the possibility in the next three to five years that one of these techniques would get enough true logical Qubits to solve some very tough problems. And Microsoft is a competitor in that space,” Gates said on the podcast.

The race to build the first truly practical quantum computer has drawn significant attention from tech giants like Microsoft and Google, as well as from specialized companies like Nvidia. Gates, who co-founded Microsoft, believes that progress is accelerating, even if the timeline remains uncertain.

Responsive Image

Quantum computing, in simple terms, uses the principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations far faster than today’s classical computers. The key component, qubits (quantum bits), differ from regular bits in that they can can exist in a probabilistic state between 0 and 1, offering vast computational power. Practical quantum computing would be the use of a quantum machine to successfully complete calculations in a time that classical computers and supercomputers could not match.

An Insider’s Take?

Gates arguably may have more of an insider track on the world of quantum computing than even Huang. He regularly reviews Microsoft’s quantum computing efforts and can see the progress. He also acknowledges the challenges ahead.

Microsoft announced in November 2024 that it was co-designing a machine it called “the world’s most powerful quantum computer,” which is expected to be released later this year.

Gates expressed confidence in the company’s progress but recognized that others, like Nvidia’s Huang, may have a more cautious view on when the technology will truly become useful.

“And I regularly review that work [at Microsoft]. And I’m quite impressed with it, but Jensen is correct, it could take longer. This is both in terms of how you build a quantum computer and what software you write that can solve problems that other computers couldn’t write. There’s some hard work to be done, and Microsoft has been in this field a long time, as well as Google and many, many, many players,” Gates said.

In January 2025, Huang stirred debate when he spoke at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) about his expectations for quantum computing. He said, “If you said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”

Gates and Huang’s contrasting views highlight the ongoing uncertainty — along with the vast spectrum between optimism at the recent progress and cynicism of the future challenges — in the quantum computing field. While some believe that practical quantum computers are still a decade or more away, others, like Gates, are more optimistic about shorter timeframes.

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Quantum Computing

Bill Gates: There’s a possibility quantum computing will become useful in 3 to 5 years – Yahoo Finance

February 3rd, 2025

Listen and subscribe to Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

Microsoft (MSFT) co-founder Bill Gates thinks useful quantum computing won’t need decades to arrive.

“There is the possibility that he [Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang] could be wrong. There is the possibility in the next three to five years that one of these techniques would get enough true logical Qubits to solve some very tough problems. And Microsoft is a competitor in that space,” Gates said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (video above; listen below).

Microsoft said in November 2024 that it was co-designing and building “the world’s most powerful quantum machine.”

It’s expected to be released later this year.

“And I regularly review that work [at Microsoft]. And I’m quite impressed with it, but Jensen is correct, it could take longer. This is both in terms of how you build a quantum computer and what software you write that can solve problems that other computers couldn’t write. There’s some hard work to be done, and Microsoft has been in this field a long time, as well as Google and many, many, many players,” Gates explained.

Gates is on the other side of the quantum computing trade, it seems.

Nvidia (NVDA) founder Jensen Huang kicked off the quantum controversy in January at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

“If you said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side,” Huang opined. “If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”

Watch: Google is a monopoly, warns founder of search competitor

Huang is still bullish on Nvidia’s role in developing quantum computing through its artificial intelligence chip technology.

Then fellow tech billionaire and Huang’s friend Meta (META) founder Mark Zuckerberg tossed cold water on quantum computing.

Zuckerberg said on the Joe Rogan podcast he sees quantum’s potential as still a “decade-plus out.”

“I’m not really an expert on quantum computing — my understanding is that’s still quite a ways off from being a very useful paradigm,” Zuckerberg said.

The downbeat commentary wreaked havoc on the red-hot quantum computing trade, which kicked off in early December when Google unveiled its high-power quantum chip, dubbed Willow.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) — the two main quantum trades being played by retail investors — are down 36% and 22.5%, respectively year to date.

Rigetti’s stock is up 992% in the past year, outperforming D-Wave’s 552% advance.

“We are in the investment mode right now,” Rigetti Computing CEO Subodh Kulkarni warned bullish investors on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast. “We do have some sales, but that’s mostly government contract kind of opportunities. Assuming the timeline I described earlier holds and we start seeing material sales opportunities three to five years from now, we certainly expect the company to start becoming cash flow break-even around that time period and beyond that, profitability will come along.”

Gates thinks it’s easier to get a handle on the pace of AI development and how it will shape businesses moving forward.

“There’s a great deal of uncertainty there [on quantum computing],” Gates added. “In the meantime, the AI stuff, that’s improving at a very, very rapid rate. That, in a sense, is more predictable that over the same three to five years that will get extremely powerful.”

Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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